Tesla Delivers Bad Outlook: Bears Will Make Money – Seeking Alpha

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ChoAlex Cho Long/short equity, research analyst, tech, growthPremiumCho’s Tech ResearchSummary

We think Tesla moves lower on diminished 2H’17 visibility as management wasn’t willing to offer some financial guidance on Model 3 ramp.

Furthermore, we like the long-term thesis, but recent news likely sends shares lower given the heightened dependency on Model 3 ramp.

Obviously, the long-term investment thesis remains intact, but short-term traders can look to capitalize by selling short the stock.

We don’t always take a bearish position on Tesla, but the opportunity of making quick returns on divergence in sentiment is too alluring to ignore.

As such, we re-rate the stock to sell short, and anticipate shares to trade at $270 over the next couple months.

Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) headline figures were hardly pertinent coming out of the report. It’s worth noting they reported another bottom line miss, but quite frankly, no one really cares. In reality, the lack of 2H’17 delivery guide was what sent share prices lower in the after hours.

Tesla reported sales of $2.7 billion as they’re on track to deliver sales beats for the next couple quarters. However, cash burn and sustained earnings losses put a damper on sentiment, implying a mixed quarterly earnings report.

Lately, stocks have been selling on mixed earnings reports. Just look at what happened with Apple and AMD this past week, for reference.

So, where do we stand?

Clearly, I’m a huge fan of Tesla’s products, services, vision and Elon Musk. However, given recent price action, investors should wait on the sidelines, whereas traders can look to capitalize towards the downside. Ironically, the momentum/tech stalwarts aren’t doing too well coming out of this earnings season, and it’s hard to shake negativity once there’s an onset of selling.

Prior to this earnings report, we told our premium subscribers via the chat room that if Tesla avoided the 2H’17 outlook that the stock would drop. That thesis was confirmed, so we’re now moving to a near-term bias of further downside prior to price recovery.

Not so surprisingly, the stock fell by 5% on the Wednesday session, inclusive of after hours activity. Clearly, the Maginot Line is forming among the bear camp. The data confirmed the bear thesis of “delayed production” to a certain extent, but not to the detriment of bulls who believe Elon’s strategic execution will become more apparent as we move into the next quarter, where preliminary production and deliveries might occur.

I’m more cautious on delivery ramp, but long-term bullish on Tesla when operating over a 10-year time horizon. However, we cannot ignore volatility, especially if we are to make money, so the bias has shifted to the downside, as we will discuss the trade set-up shortly.

As illustrated in Tesla’s earnings release:

We will provide guidance on vehicle deliveries for the second half of this year after we have started Model 3 production in July. Given that we will be ramping Model 3 production so quickly, as we’ve noted before, even a couple-week shift in timing can have a meaningful impact on total deliveries.

The key highlight: The delivery of Model 3 could be delayed by weeks rather than months. However, if Tesla were to retract on that statement, we’d imagine shares tumbling, so Q4’17 deliveries are perhaps the maximum tolerance before Armageddon hits the stock price.

It’s the perception of these risks sending share prices lower as many are happy to bag profits while they still can.

We told our premium subscribers to close positions at a cost basis of $297 after making the recommendation to go long Tesla Inc. at $254. The stock was richly valued beyond our $306 target price, hence we never advised our subscribers to chase the stock.

So, what now?

We believe shares will trend lower, and depending on timeframe, investors should either consider a re-entry into the stock or sell short the stock, which is contingent on a narrow one-month timeframe.

Source: TC2000

We believe shares will trend lower following the quarterly earnings report, and anticipate 10% downside, as we expect the stock to recover at around $270. Obviously, it could trend lower, but we wouldn’t chase the stock much further than this as there’s legitimate fundamental buying going on here and shares could whipsaw upwards on positive confirmation of Model 3 production.

Source: Goldman Sachs Research

Keep in mind, the highs are high and lows are low when pertaining to Tesla stock. The recent rally likely follows its usual pattern of selling on diminished expectations of immediate Model 3 revenue contribution until we hit 2H’17, but more likely Q1’18.

We’re not saying the company is fundamentally bad, but when opportunities to trade the stock emerge, traders/investors may want to capitalize.

Furthermore, we like the long-term thesis and will update our financial model to reflect TSLA’s current non-GAAP reporting standard, so there’s more predictive value going into the next quarterly earnings release.

Final thoughts

We think the recent rally has run its course, and drawdown takes us to $270 at the very least. We think investors should lock in profits while they still exist, whereas short sellers have another opening to make money on the downside.

Obviously, Tesla’s story/business narrative hasn’t changed by much. But the lack of financial guide and sustained suspicion over Model 3 ramp induces near-term risk on price action.

As such, we re-rate Tesla from Hold to Sell-Short. Near-term price target is revised to $270 with room for further downside.

About Cho’s Technology Research

Cho’s Technology Research is SA’s premier technology research package This service comes at a low annual subscription cost of $40/month. Subscribers get a free 15-day trial, for more information click here.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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